Assessing Project Performance with Uncertainty


John P.T. Mo, Boyd A. Nicholds

Author affiliation

School of Aerospace, Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia


Organisations are looking ways to improve their bottom-line and thrive against their competitors. However, modern organizations are extremely complex. Setting improvement targets too high without considering the company’s capability and its external and internal interactions will have little chance of achieving the set targets, which means project failure. Resource limitations often dictate the ability to work on improvement projects. Prioritization of projects is essential to sustain the trend of process improvement. This paper describes a risk model that integrates performance prediction with organisational capability score and level of difficulty to assess the likelihood of meeting performance gain targets. The risk assessment outcome indicates to the company when and where organisational capabilities need to be adjusted in order to maximise the chance of success.


Project performance; organisation capability; performance effectiveness; performance risk assessment